Surging memory costs are expected to sharply reduce global PC and smartphone shipments in 2026, according to re Gartner Inc., a business and technology insights company.
Worldwide PC shipments are projected to decline 10.4% in 2026 compared with 2025 levels, while smartphone shipments are expected to drop by 8.4%.
Gartner estimates that combined prices for DRAM and solid-state drives (SSD) will surge by as much as 130% by the end of 2026. The increase will push PC prices up by 17% and smartphone prices up by 13% compared with 2025, shifting demand toward higher-end devices.
“This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.”
Increasing costs are also expected to extend how long users keep their devices. Gartner forecasts the average PC lifespan to increase by 15% for businesses and by 20% for consumers by the end of 2026.
Longer replacement cycles could also raise security risks and complicate IT management as organizations continue operating older devices.
Memory costs are projected to account for 23% of a PC’s total bill of materials (BOM) by 2026, up from 16% in 2025.
“This sharp increase removes vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” said Atwal. “In addition, rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.”
The impact of higher component costs will be felt most in the entry-level smartphone segment. According to Gartner, budget buyers are more likely to delay upgrades, shift to refurbished or second-hand devices, or exit the market altogether.
Premium smartphone models are expected to be less affected because of their higher profit margins.
Gartner analysts estimate that basic smartphone buyers will exit the market five times faster than premium buyers in 2026.
The PC market is expected to face the greatest disruption as memory costs rise, forcing vendors to reconsider pricing strategies, Gartner said.
“Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimize pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards,” said Atwal.