The International Data Corp. (IDC) has lowered its forecast of global shipments of PCs and tablets. From 429.5 million units forecast in December 2022, the market intelligence company now sees 403.1 million units to be shipped in 2023.
IDC cited declining demand and macroeconomic conditions as the cause of its decision to lower its forecast.
While 2023 volumes will be below 2019 levels, IDC expects 2024 to be a year of recovery with PC and tablet shipments growing 3.6% compared to 2023 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels as total volume reaches 417.7 million units.
IDC also pointed out that lifted restrictions caused by the pandemic and the completion of commercial backorders for PCs sent a strong signal that endpoint devices are no longer the focal point the second half of 2022 and that 2023 will be a time for inventory clearing and shifting priorities.
However, the Philippines is among the countries that still experienced growth in the segment noting the education department’s policy of providing mobile devices as part of its programs.
“Both Samsung and Cherry Mobile continued to dominate the tablet market space accounting for more than half of the total annual shipments in the last three years since the pandemic started in 2020,” said Angela Medez, senior market analyst at IDC Philippines. “Both brands greatly benefitted from the Department of Education’s Basic Education Learning Continuity Plan prompting mass procurement among DepEd Divisions and concerned local government units (LGU).”
“Commercial demand, both from businesses and schools, will remain a bright spot throughout the forecast as hybrid work and 1:1 deployments in schools have permanently increased the size of the total addressable market,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers.
IDC noted that the sunsetting of Windows 10 is expected to drive PC refreshes in 2024 and 2025 while Chromebooks and Android tablets benefit from educational deployments and refreshes.
On the consumer front, the strength of the US dollar as well as rising inflation have greatly impacted buying power across the globe. Although the long-term outlook remains positive and above pre-pandemic levels thanks to the increased household density of PCs and tablets, the market does risk consumer spending shifting back to smartphones and other purchases.
“Surplus inventory, declining demand, and receding macros will continue applying negative pressure on both volumes and ASPs, before returning to growth mode in both departments in the subsequent two years,” said Linn Huang, research vice president, Devices and Displays.