Worldwide smartphone shipments are now expected to grow by just 0.6% year over year in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, according to a revised forecast from market intelligence firm International Data Corp. (IDC). IDC initially projected 2.3% growth in February, but ongoing global uncertainty, volatile tariffs, and weak consumer spending have led to a downward revision.
IDC attributed the slowdown to inflation, unemployment, and macroeconomic pressures in several regions. It said growth in the smartphone market is likely to remain in the low single digits through 2029, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.4%. This is due to longer replacement cycles, higher smartphone ownership, and increased competition from used devices.
“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk.”
China and the United States remain key drivers of growth, with China expected to grow 3% in 2025. IDC said government subsidies continue to support Android sales in the country. Apple, however, may see a 1.9% decline in China due to rising competition from Huawei, slower consumer spending, and limited eligibility for subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. Still, IDC expects iPhone sales to benefit from discounts during China’s 618 shopping festival and the expected release of the iPhone 17.
“The US market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, “but it was impacted by the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff-related price increases.”
IDC said the US smartphone market is somewhat protected due to most phones being sold through carriers that offer trade-in deals and interest-free financing. This has helped limit the impact of an expected 4% rise in average selling prices.
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