The International Data Corp. (IDC), a market intelligence company, is forecasting a 13.7% year-over-year decline in PC shipments, totaling 252 million units in 2023, despite indications of a recovering market.
IDC’s data indicates an anticipated 3.7% year-over-year growth in PC shipments for 2024, reaching a total of 261.4 million shipments. However, these figures remain below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 but surpass the 2018 numbers, which stood at 259.6 million.
IDC cites concerns surrounding the consumer market’s refresh cycle, businesses advancing their device purchase, and education budgets that are not rebounding in many markets as factors to the decline.
“Consumer demand remains tepid at best as the segment continues to face economic headwinds,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. “Consumer demand for PCs also faces challenges from other devices including smartphones, consoles, tablets, and more, marking 2023 as the year with the greatest annual decline in consumer PC shipments since the category’s inception.”
IDC also noted the growing influence of generative AI (genAI) on organizational decision-making. Although AI-capable PCs have not yet reached the mainstream market, the research firm noted their gradual emergence.
Regarding processors, the market landscape has been stirred by AMD, which achieved an 11% market share in 2022, overshadowing Apple’s mere 5% share during the same year. The considerations of companies embracing hybrid work models, including factors such as preferred brands, PC types, and the viability of using multiple PCs, could also contribute to these forecast fluctuations.
“Commercial PCs will remain interesting for years to come with technology advances adding an extra element to decision making,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile and Consumer Device Trackers. “But it is important to remember that Windows 10 end of support comes in 2025 and this will drive commercial refresh regardless of whether companies are waiting on more advanced PCs or just needing to update an aging installed base.”
Reith pointed out that Apple envisions an opportunity to sustain its growth within the commercial segment, making this an aspect to closely monitor moving forward.