Market intelligence firm International Data Corp. (IDC) now expects global PC shipments to drop 11.3% in 2026, sharply lower than the 2.4% decline it projected in November 2025, as memory shortages and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on production.
The revised outlook from IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker also shows tablet shipments falling 7.6% in 2026, reflecting the broader pressure on the personal computing device market.
IDC said the downgrade stems from a combination of tight memory supply, rising component prices, and ongoing logistics constraints, which are expected to limit production capacity through 2027. The firm noted that geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global trade could add further pressure on technology supply chains.
“The overall tech industry, as well as many others, continues to face uncontrollable headwinds that, when compounded, result in massive disruption,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president, Devices and Consumer. “The list of industry and geopolitical events continues to grow, making decision-making and even survival in some sectors nearly impossible. What has turned all of this from a million-dollar question into a trillion-dollar question is the complete uncertainty around when these pressures will subside.”
Despite falling shipment volumes, the market’s total value is expected to increase due to increasing prices.
IDC projects the global PC market to grow 1.6% in value to $274 billion in 2026, while the tablet market could expand 3.9% to $66.8 billion, driven by higher average selling prices as manufacturers pass on rising component costs to buyers.
“The era of bargain-priced PCs and tablets is behind us for now, as rising ASPs and component costs shift the market’s balance of power,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “Memory shortages will persist well into 2027. While we anticipate some easing of prices beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, we expect a new normal defined by structurally higher ASPs and a corresponding softening in long-term demand.”
To cope with prolonged supply constraints, IDC expects device makers to strengthen supply chain resilience, diversify component sourcing, and consider lower-spec hardware configurations to control costs while keeping devices affordable.
These strategies, IDC said, could shape how businesses and consumers adopt PCs and tablets over the next several years as the industry adjusts to higher component prices and persistent supply challenges.