IDC has adjusted its forecast for the global PC and tablet market, lowering its outlook for 2025 and beyond due to economic pressures and shifting demand. Despite the revision, commercial sales are expected to help stabilize growth, according to the market intelligence firm.
IDC now expects worldwide PC shipments to reach 273 million units in 2025, showing a 3.7% increase from the previous year but a slight downgrade from earlier projections. After 2025, growth in the traditional PC market is expected to slow to below 1% annually through 2029 as demand levels off following Windows 11 upgrades.
Tablet shipments are projected to decline by 0.8% in 2025, reaching 143.3 million units. IDC anticipates a gradual decrease in sales, with shipments dropping to 141.6 million by 2029, mainly due to market saturation among consumers.
“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC. “However, the weakness in consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies.”
While consumer sales weaken, commercial demand is expected to drive shipments in 2025. Enterprise and education PC sales grew by 2% in 2024, fueled by large contracts and Windows 11 upgrades. IDC expects firms to continue buying Windows 11 PCs, though some will opt for software upgrades instead.
“In light of so many challenges around the world, Japan is a much-needed source of double-digit growth this year,” said Bryan Ma, vice president of Devices Research at IDC. “Growth rates naturally come down next year, but at least there is still a large education project to absorb some of the landing.”