In a recent projection by market intelligence firm International Data Corp. (IDC), the smartphone market is anticipated to witness a resurgence, with shipments projected to reach 1.20 billion units in 2024, marking a 2.8% increase year over year.
This growth trajectory, according to IDC, is expected to persist with modest single-digit growth through 2028, signaling a positive shift in the market post-pandemic. While overall volumes still lag behind pre-pandemic levels, IDC asserts that the market has stabilized and is poised for upward momentum.
Despite experiencing six annual contractions over the past seven years, 2024 is poised to reverse this trend, signaling a return to growth in the smartphone market.
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“It’s been a challenging run for the smartphone market, even when looking at the years leading into the pandemic,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. “While the world continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment, several device categories that compete for a share of wallet are seeing a return to growth, including personal computers.”
AI
Reith noted that IDC firmly believes the smartphone will remain the quintessential device for most, but ongoing price increases and the improved durability of today’s smartphones supports an already lengthened replacement cycle, which will dampen new shipment growth.
Factors such as device replacement patterns and expanding demand in emerging markets are instrumental in driving the overall market recovery. Recent technological advancements, notably in foldable smartphones, are injecting new life into the industry. Foldable smartphones are expected to witness a 37% year-over-year growth, with shipments projected to reach 25 million units in 2024. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into smartphones is boosting interest in next-generation AI experiences on handheld devices.
“Although total smartphone shipments remain below pre-pandemic levels, the good news is that consumers are willing to pay more for their phones. This will be further fueled by innovations in foldables and the idea of next-gen AI on a device,” said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers.
IDC forecasts 170 million next-gen AI smartphones will ship in 2024, representing almost 15% of the total smartphone market and surpassing even AI PCs. Next-gen AI smartphones will grow rapidly beyond 2024 as use cases evolve and industry players continue to push forward the NPU technology. While AI will impact all devices, smartphones will be the device driving the AI revolution into every home.