A new report from DHL forecasts steady growth in global trade, with the Philippines identified as one of the fastest-growing markets in Asia. Alongside India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, the country is expected to see significant trade expansion in the coming years.
“Global trade is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than in the past decade,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, during a virtual media briefing. “What does this tell us? These uncertainties are likely to foster more diverse and resilient supply chains.”
The DHL report projects an annual global trade volume growth rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, which is higher than the previous five-year period. Asia, in particular, is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5%-6%, driven largely by Southeast Asian countries.
The report identifies the Philippines as a promising market for trade, especially within Southeast Asia. The country’s expanding economy and increasing participation in regional trade agreements position it as a key player in the region.
China and global trade
China remains the largest participant in global trade, with its share expected to stay around 13% through 2029. The European Union and the United States are projected to maintain stable shares of global trade, while East Asia and the Pacific region are expected to see an increase. Growth in South and Central Asia is also noted, with trade shares rising from 2% to 5% over the past 20 years.
The study also examines the trend of regionalized trade. While North America has shown a shift toward regional partnerships, no major changes are observed in East Asia, the Pacific, South Asia, or Central Asia.
Geopolitical conflicts continue to influence trade patterns, particularly between China and the US. While there has been a decline in China’s exports to the US and US imports from China, the report questions the extent of economic decoupling between the two countries. It also highlights that the broader measure of US reliance on Chinese goods, including indirect imports, has not shown a long-term decline.
The possibility of the world economy dividing along geopolitical lines is also discussed. The report notes a shift in trade flows, with fewer transactions crossing between groups of closely aligned countries. However, it remains uncertain whether these shifts will lead to a more divided global economy.