Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 4% year over year in 2024 to 1.21 billion units, according to market intelligence firm International Data Corp. (IDC).
This anticipated growth by IDC signals a recovery in consumer demand after a challenging period for the market. The upward trend is expected to continue into 2025 with a 2.3% increase, followed by low single-digit growth throughout the forecast period, culminating in a five-year compound annual growth rate of 2.3%.
“While the overall market will see a relatively strong recovery this year with 4% growth coming from almost all regions, it is important to note that the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple),” said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Tracker Team.
Popal highlighted that the rapid growth of Android is coming off a tough two years, while iOS’ softer growth is due to a strong 2023 and increasing competition in China. She added that Apple’s growth could accelerate if the company makes significant advancements in its AI strategy for iPhones, particularly in China.
IDC also pointed out the role of 5G technology in the market’s recovery. 5G-powered smartphones continue to fuel the market, with these devices expected to display nearly 16% growth in 2024 as adoption expands across all regions and markets. The growth rate for 5G smartphones is projected to remain strong, with a 13.2% increase in 2025 and 5G market share climbing to 74.4% by 2025, up from 67.2% in 2024.
While the overall smartphone market is projected to have a 2.3% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2028, 5G shipments are expected to achieve a notable 9.1% growth rate during the same period.