According to the market intelligence firm International Data Corp. (IDC), worldwide generative AI (GenAI) smartphone shipments are predicted to grow by 363.6% year over year in 2024, reaching 234.2 million units. This surge will account for 19% of the overall smartphone market in 2024.
The rapid integration of GenAI in smartphones is considered unprecedented in mobile history, with market penetration expected to surpass 60% within the first three years.
GenAI smartphones, as defined by IDC, are devices with a system-on-a-chip (SoC) that can efficiently run GenAI models on the device. These smartphones use a neural processing unit (NPU) capable of performing 30 tera operations per second (TOPS) or more, using the int-8 data type.
“The most significant impact of this evolution is anticipated in 2026, when mid-range devices are expected to adopt this technology, making a momentous leap toward the democratization of GenAI,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Tracker Team. “While it is still too early to know all the use cases that will emerge in the coming years, one thing is for sure, GenAI will completely transform the way we interact with our smartphones.”
The forecast utilizes data from the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker and information from extensive, structured interviews with major device vendors, supplemented with various secondary sources.
Triple-digit growth
Despite challenges such as prolonged refresh cycles and macroeconomic uncertainties, the incorporation of GenAI capabilities in smartphones is projected to drive upgrades, offering significant opportunities for vendors and application developers. Following the dramatic growth in 2024, shipments of GenAI smartphones are expected to increase by 73.1% year over year in 2025. Moderate double-digit growth is anticipated for the remainder of the forecast period, with projections indicating 912 million GenAI smartphone shipments by 2028, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78.4% from 2024 to 2028.
According to IDC, initially, GenAI smartphone sales are likely to be confined to flagship devices. However, as the technology becomes more widespread, the potential for personalized and proactive AI assistants on smartphones is expected to rise. This evolution, driven by consumer demand, advancements in applications, and overall industry growth, promises to make the next decade an exciting period for the smartphone market.
“The triple-digit growth in 2024 will be followed by four consecutive years of double-digit growth as device manufacturers look to incorporate GenAI-capable features across their device offerings,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director of Mobile Phones at IDC. “The cost will remain a critical inhibitor initially as many of the capable chipsets don’t come cheap and are available primarily in the ultra-premium segment of the market.”
However, the IDC believes that over time, these components will enter the mid-market and more affordable models as competition grows among device manufacturers and AI applications.