Global smartphone shipments are expected to increase 2.3% in 2025, reaching 1.26 billion units, according to the International Data Corp. (IDC). This shows the second consecutive year of growth following a 6.1% increase in 2024.
The growth is partly driven by an improving Android market, especially in China, where government subsidies and demand for new devices have helped reverse previous declines. IDC projects steady growth in the coming years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% from 2024 to 2029.
“Android is expected to grow 40% faster than iOS this year, with 2.5% year-on-year growth, fueled by 5.6% growth in China, thanks to the new subsidies program by the Chinese government, which is expected to mostly benefit Android as opposed to Apple,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
Apple’s shipments in China are expected to drop by 1.9% in 2025 due to market challenges. However, the company is set to see global growth of 1.8%, driven by strong demand in the United States and emerging markets such as India and Indonesia, where year-on-year growth is forecast at 18% and 9%, respectively. Popal noted that Apple’s recent launch of the iPhone 16e and the continued expansion of Apple Intelligence features are expected to maintain demand and keep average selling prices high.
Tariffs
In the United States, smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 3.3% despite the new 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, including smartphones.
“An aging installed base ready for renewal will positively impact shipments for the year,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Although the new tariffs will slightly increase the average selling prices, most consumers in the US purchase smartphones through installment plans, often combined with trade-ins, via the telecom channel.”
Scarsella noted that as a result, any increase in average selling price (ASP) in the US is less likely to impact purchase decisions for most consumers.
The global ASP for smartphones is expected to rise slightly to $434 in 2025, supported by premium models, even as low-end Android devices enter the market. IDC forecasts that ASP will remain stable, with a slight decline year-over-year, reaching $424 by 2029.