Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to grow 1% year-on-year in 2025 to reach 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corp. (IDC). The figure is higher than its earlier projection of 0.6%, supported by a forecasted 3.9% increase in iOS shipments this year.
IDC said that despite weak demand and economic headwinds, steady replacement demand will drive growth through 2026, with the market projected to post a compound annual growth rate of 1.5% from 2024 to 2029. The total addressable market has also improved slightly, as the current exemption by the US government on smartphones shields the sector from potential tariffs.
“While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfill demand which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments.”
Growth will be supported by the United States and Middle East and Africa, which are projected to rise 3.6% and 6.5% in 2025. Asia Pacific excluding China is forecast to post a 0.8% increase. Meanwhile, China is expected to see a 1% decline, reversing an earlier forecast of 3% growth as government subsidies taper off amid economic challenges. IDC said identifying regional opportunities will be key for vendors.
IDC noted that while overall unit growth will be modest at 1% next year, the industry will benefit from a 5% year-on-year increase in average selling prices and 6% growth in value. Vendors are focusing on value growth through investments in slimmer designs, foldables, camera upgrades, and generative AI features. Promotions and interest-free financing programs are also helping make premium devices more accessible.
“GenAI continues to be a significant focus for vendors in differentiating themselves as they integrate AI features into their devices to drive shipments,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. IDC expects more than 370 million GenAI smartphones to ship in 2025, accounting for 30% of the market. By 2029, GenAI-enabled phones are projected to make up more than 70% of shipments.
Foldable smartphones are also forecast to grow, with IDC projecting a 6% year-on-year increase in 2025. Despite improved durability and lower prices, foldables are expected to remain a niche segment, representing less than 3% of shipments by 2029.